Super Typhoon Mawar, currently located approximately 1,740 kilometers east of southeastern Luzon, remains outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
With maximum sustained winds of 215 kilometers per hour and gusts reaching up to 265 kph, Mawar is moving west northwest at a speed of 20 kph, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) reported.
Pagasa forecasters have indicated that there is a possibility of Mawar entering the PAR by Friday night or early Saturday morning. The typhoon is expected to maintain its westward trajectory until today, Friday, with an acceleration anticipated before turning more west northwestward on Saturday.
It is predicted that Mawar will reach its peak intensity within the next 24 to 36 hours. However, forecasters suggest that the super typhoon may slightly weaken by Saturday as it approaches the waters east of extreme Northern Luzon.
Moreover, there is a potential for the maximum sustained winds of Mawar to further intensify in the next few hours. Pagasa advises residents in the affected areas to remain cautious and stay updated with the latest weather advisories and bulletins.
As Mawar progresses, it is expected to weaken at a slightly faster rate by Monday or Tuesday due to unfavorable conditions, including increasing wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures resulting from its slowdown, and dry air intrusion.
The current forecast scenario indicates that Mawar may bring heavy rains, which could lead to flooding and rain-induced landslides, over Northern Luzon beginning Sunday evening.
Extreme Northern Luzon may experience strong to storm-force conditions, while strong to gale-force conditions are possible over the northern and eastern portions of the Northern Luzon mainland.
Furthermore, Mawar is projected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon, resulting in potential monsoon rains over the western portions of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Visayas starting on Sunday or Monday.