Super Typhoon Mawar continues to maintain its strength as it travels westward, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) reported in its 11 a.m. bulletin Thursday.
Located approximately 2,065 kilometers east of Southeastern Luzon, the typhoon’s center was clocked with maximum sustained winds of 185 kilometers per hour near its core, with gusts reaching up to 230 kilometers per hour.
Pagasa predicts that Mawar will accelerate over the next 12 hours, generally tracking west-northwestward before turning westward. It’s projected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Friday evening or Saturday morning, progressing west-northwestward toward the sea east of Extreme Northern Luzon.
Notably, forecast models indicate a potential for a closer approach to the country than currently predicted by the central track.
Mawar is expected to continue intensifying over the next three days, potentially reaching a peak intensity of 215 kilometers per hour by Sunday. The super typhoon will then likely begin to weaken, but it is still anticipated to remain a significant typhoon by the end of the forecast period.
Pagasa warns that the typhoon’s rainbands could cause heavy rains over Cagayan Valley between Sunday and Tuesday next week. Moreover, most areas of the region could experience strong to gale-force conditions, potentially triggering the hoisting of Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals in the coming days. Notably, the Batanes-Babuyan Islands area may experience gale to storm-force conditions.
Considering possible shifts in Mawar’s track, Pagasa advises residents in Cagayan Valley and other areas of Northern Luzon to remain vigilant for changes in the weather scenario.
Mawar is also forecast to enhance the Southwest Monsoon, potentially triggering monsoon rains over the western portions of Luzon and Visayas beginning on Sunday or Monday. However, these projections may change due to the dependency of Southwest Monsoon enhancement on Mawar’s track and intensity.
Given these developments, Pagasa urges the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices to continue monitoring updates related to the tropical cyclone. The next advisory is scheduled for 11 p.m. today, unless an intermediate advisory or initial tropical cyclone bulletin is released beforehand.